How Donald Trump’s criminal prosecution affected public opinion

A survey exploring how rhetoric about the criminal prosecution of political leaders affects public attitudes finds that Donald Trump’s prosecution ahead of the 2024 Republican presidential primaries had strikingly limited effects on reducing public support for Trump—but caused backlash against legal officials. More than 75 former presidents and prime ministers have faced criminal prosecution worldwide since 2000. To investigate what effect these prosecutions might have on public opinion, Daniel B. Markovits and Andrew O’Donohue surveyed about 3,000 US citizens who self-identify as Republicans or independents between October and December 2023. Each participant watched either a video of rhetoric from Trump, in which his called his prosecution “the most evil and heinous abuse of power in the history of our country;” a video of federal prosecutor Jack Smith explaining the prosecution and arguing that “We have one set of laws in this country, and they apply to everyone;” or a placebo video. Contrary to the authors’ expectations, Trump’s rhetoric did not increase support for his candidacy or reduce support for democratic norms. Rhetoric from the prosecutor modestly decreased participants’ intention of voting for Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries, but only among participants who did not view Trump favorably before watching the video. The same video clip reduced support for the prosecutor among Trump supporters. According to the authors, preexisting attitudes toward Donald Trump are substantially immune to change via rhetoric about legal accountability—and support for democratic norms is so deeply ingrained that it takes more than Trump’s rhetoric to erode it.